The AL Cy Young is David Price’s to lose

With bated breath, we wait for the National League Cy Young to be handed out. Will it be Zack Greinke? Will upstart Jake Arrieta race ahead of the pack? Will Clayton Kershaw somehow make it three in a row? There is really no such debate in the American League. The award for best pitcher in the junior circuit should, and most likely will, go to David Price of the Toronto Blue Jays with very little debate.

Other candidates for the AL Cy Young have mostly fallen to the wayside. Chris Sale, Chris Archer and Sonny Gray have run out of steam ever so slightly in the second half. The only real threat to Price is Houston Astros’ ace Dallas Keuchel.

Both Price and Keuchel started crucial games for their respective clubs on Monday night, and both delivered victories. Price downed the New York Yankees with seven shutout innings. Keuchel dominated the Los Angeles Angeles, allowing a single run in 7.2 innings. For Price, it was win number 17 against five losses. The Houston hurler improved his record to 18-8. The Toronto ace lowered his ERA to 2.34, while Keuchel’s comes in just behind in the AL rankings at 2.51.

These two will top the Cy Young rankings in the American League, but there should be no debate as to whose name comes out on top.

Price and Keuchel have nearly identical pitching lines on the season. Both have allowed 16 home runs in 31 starts. Price has struck out 219 to Keuchel’s 203. Both have thrown three complete games. Opponents are batting .228 against Price and .219 against Keuchel.

In such a tight race, how am I so sure that Price will win the award?

Take a look at the road record of each pitcher:

  • Price: 16 starts, 11-2 W-L, 110.0 IP, 29 BB, 110 K, 1.08 WHIP, 2.05 ERA
  • Keuchel: 14 starts, 4-8 W-L, 96.2 IP, 21 BB, 74 K, 1.17 WHIP, 3.82 ERA

Keuchel has been masterful at home, with a 14-0 record and sub-2.00 ERA, but he is a mess on the road, much like the entire Astros team. His most recent road start was a 4.2-inning, nine-run clunker in a must-win game against the Texas Rangers. The Astros struggle on the road. They need more out of their ace when they are away from home, but he has not been able to deliver.

Since joining the Blue Jays, Price is 8-1 with a 1.95 ERA. He has defeated the Yankees three times while invigorating the Toronto clubhouse. The free-agent-to-be has delivered in a way that Johnny Cueto has not been able to do in Kansas City. Without Price, it’s unlikely the Jays are in position to make their first trip to the postseason since 1993. It was an all-in type of move for Toronto, but Price has not disappointed.

The race for the American League Cy Young will be tight, but David Price will claim his second award. The Toronto narrative is too strong, and he’s been able to deliver on the road where Keuchel hasn’t.

3 Responses

  1. HogFans An-News

    ure retarded! Dallas Keuchel leads the al in win, games, cg, sho, ip, whip, is 2nd in era, top 5 in ks!
    and unlike david price his team has been winning all yr and its all because of him! david leads al in era thats it. and he spent 5 months as the leader of a underachiving. 4th place tigers team! were as DK has lead the astros(thats right the 5 straight 90 loss(4 straight 100 loss) to the playoffs and is his teams best and most important player! Were as price is the 4th most important bluejay behind donaldson, tulo, bautista and edwin! and hes only been on a winning team for 6 weeks! ill bet u 1000 bucks dk wins cy young. and ps the bluejays wont win a al playoff series dk’s astros will win the al! and im not a astros fan im a cubs fan! im just not stupid like u!! im sure u also say cepedas shpuld win nl mvp dont u idiot

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  2. Frank Barrett

    I agree Price should win cy young. And to point out with the tigers he was keeping them in the running for al central most of first half when the rest of the stars were struggling or out on dl . Price has put up great numbers at home and away while being traded twice in 1 year. He has been on top of his game and bottom line is winning and price has a lot higher win percent ranks ahead of keuchel in ks and keuchel doesn’t lead in Cg he is tied with price with 3. Archer leads starting pitchers in games and games started. And what keuchel leads price in can be erased in 1 start price is 1 win and 5 ip. And keuchel pitches on road

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  3. Brandon Rees

    I think it is silly to put arbitrary importance on performance while on the road. A game is a game. Price has been great at home and amazing on the road, and Keuchel has been mediocre on the road and transcendent at home. The gap between Price and Keuchel on the road is the same as the gap between them at home, and that is the reason their overall numbers are so similar. Saying Price has been better because he has been better on the road is arguing that road performance is more valuable than home performance which makes no sense at all. Stats at home:

    Price: 16 starts, 7-3 W-L, 110.0 IP, 18 BB, 115 K, 1.07 WHIP, 2.85 ERA
    Keuchel: 18 starts, 15-0 W-L, 129.1 IP, 28 BB, 139 K, 0.89 WHIP, 1.46 ERA

    Both pitchers have been ridiculously good this year. I give Keuchel the edge in the Cy Young race. If you value contribution to a playoff race, Keuchel played on the Astros all season. If you value conventional numbers Keuchel will likely have more wins. If you value advanced metrics Keuchel edges Price with stolen base prevention and elite fielding ability. Just all comes to perspective though.

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