5 Burning Questions for the Chicago Cubs offseason

St Louis Cardinals v Chicago Cubs

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2.) Who gets traded?

The Cubs have too many assets under the age of 25 to imagine they won’t make at least one trade this offseason for a frontline starting pitcher. It does not make too much sense, unless the Cubs really are going to try Javier Baez in the outfield, to hold onto Baez, Russell, and Castro. Castro is least likely to be traded just because of the money he is owed. Russell won’t be traded either because he has the most upside. If anyone gets moved, it’s likely to be Baez. The San Diego Padres have a gaping hole at shortstop and missed out on the Andrelton Simmons sweepstakes. San Diego will probably be even more aggressive in the pursuit of a shortstop now. The Padres have Tyson Ross, and a Ross-Baez swap with a few other prospects changing hands to complete the deal makes a lot of sense. San Diego could of course decide their team is good enough to contend and not trade anyone, a plan that worked really well for them at the trade deadline last year.

Another name to consider on the trade market is Jorge Soler. The Cubs have been linked to Alex Gordon who plays a corner outfield spot. Kyle Schwarber will likely see most of his action in the outfield next year. Schwarber and Gordon would take up left and right, so where does that leave Soler? He does not seem like a natural candidate to play center-field, but it’s possible. Gordon is a great fit for the Cubs, as is another outfielder, Ben Zobrist. If the Cubs sign either one of those two, Soler could become a trade chip, allowing the Cubs to capitalize on his huge postseason.

2 Responses

  1. DancingInPDX

    Nice piece Josh. I guess the over-arching question I have: what is the Cubs’ strategy for starting pitching, both short and long term? What’s clear is that the Cubs don’t have any sure-thing starters coming up through their system – even our top pitching prospects aren’t elite. So the two options are obviously FA signings or trades, or some combination.

    The prevailing assumption is that the Cubs will go after Price or some other elite FA SP, spending $200M over 6 years, or something like that. The benefit is that we’ll have 2 years of an exceptional 1-2-3 punch in our rotation. But after that we have problems. Arrieta becomes a free agent, and until the massive Tribune bankruptcy debt comes off the books and the new TV contract(s) kick in, both in 2020, it doesn’t seem feasible the Cubs can hold onto him. What’s more, Lester and Price (presumably) will be squarely in their declining years, while burning $50M annually.

    What’s more, what is the actual amount of value a 30yo SP like Price will provide over 6-7 years, in terms of WAR? Now compare that to the same amount of money being spent on, say, Jason Heyward? At 26 Heyward is likely to average a WAR of over 6.0 for the next 6 years. Compare that to David Price who’s WAR has averaged less than 3.0 over the past 5 years, and will certainly decline.

    My point is, if we’re going to spend $200M on someone, why not get Heyward for 8 years, most of which will be prime years? In so doing it frees up another one of our elite and cheap position players to be traded for a cheap and controllable arm. Between Baez, Soler, Almora, Happ, McKinney and Torres, we should have enough young talent to bring in Carrasco and one other mid-20’s pitching stud.

    Financially the two options are equivalent, but the long-term value of the second option is far superior, in my view.

    Reply
    • Joshua Sadlock

      Maybe none of that will matter when the Cubs have their own TV netork ;)

      http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/ct-cubs-cable-network-sullivan-baseball-spt-1112-20151111-column.html

      Now, getting back to business, it’s hard to predict what exactly the Cubs will do with Arrieta. He’s a Boras guy, and Boras is not one to negotiate extensions before free agency. He may make an exception in Arrieta’s case given the backstory. Still think the Cubs would like to see one more year out of him before committing big time.

      Your point about Lester and Price is a good one. Hated the Lester signing last year (or at least the value of the contract). Lester just seems like a guy who is getting by on his reputation with the Red Sox. Seems like a two being paid like a one who will be a three in another year (still being paid like a one!). Not sure I see the same drop off coming with Price. Who knows.

      Heyward is an interesting name. There are probably all kinds of regression models out there that can tell you whether Heyward or Price is the better investment. I don’t know what you’re getting from Heyward either though, necessarily. Is he the guy who had a good year for the Cardinals or the guy who had a really good rookie year for the Braves and then struggled? Lot of uncertainty with him before you commit to 8 years and $200 million. I think for what the Cubs really need, starting pitching, Price is a better investment than Heyward. In an ideal world, the Cubs would be able to get Alex Gordon for four years, but the market will likely dictate that he’s a five year player.

      Reply

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