5 Burning Questions for the Chicago Cubs offseason

League Championship - Toronto Blue Jays v Kansas City Royals - Game Six

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1.) Which big pitcher will the Cubs sign?

David Price is the obvious choice, and the Cubs should be viewed as the favorite to land Price up until the moment he signs with someone else. The Maddon-Price connection, as well as the opportunity to pitch in a rotation with Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester, will be a big attraction for Price. He won’t have the hopes of an entire franchise shoved on his shoulders with those two to back him up. The Cubs will also make an offer to Zach Greinke, but if Greinke does not re-sign with the Los Angeles Dodgers, the only other logical landing spot for him is up the coast in San Francisco. Johnny Cueto is probably a no-go for the Cubs. If the Cubs are getting really aggressive this winter, they could also pursue Jordan Zimmermann. That’s probably too much money for even the Cubs.

The Cubs need an upgrade to the back-end of their rotation, and they have the money to spend for it. It’s only a matter of whether the team makes one or two big purchase at starting pitcher. The most likely scenario has the Cubs signing Price, and trading for a fringe ace like Tyson Ross.

2 Responses

  1. DancingInPDX

    Nice piece Josh. I guess the over-arching question I have: what is the Cubs’ strategy for starting pitching, both short and long term? What’s clear is that the Cubs don’t have any sure-thing starters coming up through their system – even our top pitching prospects aren’t elite. So the two options are obviously FA signings or trades, or some combination.

    The prevailing assumption is that the Cubs will go after Price or some other elite FA SP, spending $200M over 6 years, or something like that. The benefit is that we’ll have 2 years of an exceptional 1-2-3 punch in our rotation. But after that we have problems. Arrieta becomes a free agent, and until the massive Tribune bankruptcy debt comes off the books and the new TV contract(s) kick in, both in 2020, it doesn’t seem feasible the Cubs can hold onto him. What’s more, Lester and Price (presumably) will be squarely in their declining years, while burning $50M annually.

    What’s more, what is the actual amount of value a 30yo SP like Price will provide over 6-7 years, in terms of WAR? Now compare that to the same amount of money being spent on, say, Jason Heyward? At 26 Heyward is likely to average a WAR of over 6.0 for the next 6 years. Compare that to David Price who’s WAR has averaged less than 3.0 over the past 5 years, and will certainly decline.

    My point is, if we’re going to spend $200M on someone, why not get Heyward for 8 years, most of which will be prime years? In so doing it frees up another one of our elite and cheap position players to be traded for a cheap and controllable arm. Between Baez, Soler, Almora, Happ, McKinney and Torres, we should have enough young talent to bring in Carrasco and one other mid-20’s pitching stud.

    Financially the two options are equivalent, but the long-term value of the second option is far superior, in my view.

    Reply
    • Joshua Sadlock

      Maybe none of that will matter when the Cubs have their own TV netork ;)

      http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/columnists/ct-cubs-cable-network-sullivan-baseball-spt-1112-20151111-column.html

      Now, getting back to business, it’s hard to predict what exactly the Cubs will do with Arrieta. He’s a Boras guy, and Boras is not one to negotiate extensions before free agency. He may make an exception in Arrieta’s case given the backstory. Still think the Cubs would like to see one more year out of him before committing big time.

      Your point about Lester and Price is a good one. Hated the Lester signing last year (or at least the value of the contract). Lester just seems like a guy who is getting by on his reputation with the Red Sox. Seems like a two being paid like a one who will be a three in another year (still being paid like a one!). Not sure I see the same drop off coming with Price. Who knows.

      Heyward is an interesting name. There are probably all kinds of regression models out there that can tell you whether Heyward or Price is the better investment. I don’t know what you’re getting from Heyward either though, necessarily. Is he the guy who had a good year for the Cardinals or the guy who had a really good rookie year for the Braves and then struggled? Lot of uncertainty with him before you commit to 8 years and $200 million. I think for what the Cubs really need, starting pitching, Price is a better investment than Heyward. In an ideal world, the Cubs would be able to get Alex Gordon for four years, but the market will likely dictate that he’s a five year player.

      Reply

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