Which big free agent comes with the most risk?

Source: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America

Source: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images North America

10.) Darren O’Day, RHP

2016 Projected Stats: 65.0 IP, 3.05 ERA, 9.7 K/9*

* Projected stats using Steamer projection system

The Steamer numbers are not kind to the 33-year-old right-hander. O’Day is coming off the best season of his career, but the projection systems are not showing much love to the sidearm relief pitcher. O’Day is projected to see his ERA double while losing close to two strikeouts per nine innings. Yikes.

The risk with O’Day, as it is with all sidearm pitchers, is that at some point, his mechanics and release point will go. There has been no sign of that so far with O’Day, but it has inevitably spelled the demise of most pitchers like him in the past. At 33 years old, O’Day is seeking a four-year deal worth at least $32 million. While it’s not a huge annual value, O’Day’s contract would put him in the same price range as Andrew Miller. Any small loss in velocity, command, or a minor injury, could spell the end for O’Day. A three-year deal is most likely a safer bet, but in the end one team is going to bite and give his a four-year deal.

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