Which big free agent comes with the most risk?

Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America

Source: Scott Cunningham/Getty Images North America

9.) Jordan Zimmermann, RHP

2016 Projected Stats: 12-11, 192.0 IP, 3.57 ERA, 7.28 K/9

The 29-year-old starter, who will turn 30 next May, is coming off a 2015 season in which his ERA ran up from 2.66 to 3.66. Zimmermann’s strikeout rate fell off from 8.2 to 7.3, but that should not necessarily be viewed as incredibly alarming. For his career, Zimmermann has a strikeout rate of 7.4 per nine. The Wisconsin native projects as a number two or three starter, but will command a salary upwards of $20 million per year. If a team can get Zimmermann on a five-year deal, he should provide good value for most of the duration of the deal, especially if he signs with a team that calls a pitcher-friendly park home. There is a past Tommy John surgery in Zimmermann’s medical file, but he has averaged over 200 innings each of the past four seasons.

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