Which big free agent comes with the most risk?

Source: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America

Source: Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images North America

8.) Zack Greinke, RHP

2016 Projected Stats: 13-10, 206.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 8.24 K/9

No one expects Greinke to replicate his 1.66 ERA next year or over the life of his contract. There was a bit of luck involved in the 32-year-old right-hander posting such a microscopic ERA. The scheduling gods and the BABip gods were kind to Greinke in 2015. Greinke is now 51-15 during his time with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and has significantly lowered his ERA since coming over to the National League. In his starts at Dodger Stadium, Greinke has a 2.00 ERA.

The final landing spot for Greinke is still up in the air, but if he’s not back with the Dodgers, a move up the Pacific coast to San Francisco seems likely. The Giants also play in a pitcher-friendly park and have a solid defense. Over the life of a five- or six-year contract, Greinke should still provide plenty of value. He has been healthy throughout his nine-year career, and is a crafty pitcher on the mound. The effects of age should not hurt his performance. Still, signing any 32-year-old pitcher to a five-year deal comes with a good bit of risk.

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