Which big free agent comes with the most risk?

Source: Brian Blanco/Getty Images North America

Source: Brian Blanco/Getty Images North America

7.) Chris Davis, 1B/RF

2016 Projected Stats: .236/.329/.466, 33 HR, 90 RBI, 198 K

Wow, again, Steamer is not kind to a Baltimore Orioles free agent. Davis came back from a horrific year to post numbers that were in line with the power numbers he put up in an epic 53-homer, 138-RBI 2013 campaign. The strikeouts will always be a concern with Davis, but he did improve against left-handed pitching in 2016 and hits with power to all fields. The shift will continue to steal base hits from Davis, and his average will not get much higher than .270. Davis will be 30 on Opening Day next year, and is fairly athletic for a first baseman. He could hardly be described as a “bad body” player.

Over the life of a six-year contract, Davis may see a drop in power in years five and six, but early on, he will be one of the best home run hitters in the league. Davis and his agent Scott Boras are not dumb. He will sign with a team that offers a small ballpark, most likely in the American League. That will reduce the downside risk with Chris Davis.

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