Which big free agent comes with the most risk?

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6.) Yoenis Cespedes / Justin Upton, OF

Cespedes 2016 Projected Stats: .266/.312/.473, 27 HR, 89 RBI, 136 K

Upton 2016 Projected Stats: .260/.343/.467, 28 HR, 87 RBI, 159 K

Both of these outfielders have similar free-agent profiles. You look at them and drool over the raw physical potential, but the results on the field sometimes leave you scratching your head. Upton is 28 and Cespedes is 30. Both have plenty of power, but Cespedes is still raw and free-swinging. Upton tends to glide at times and can look disengaged in the field. Upton’s one year with the San Diego Padres was very underwhelming. In the right setting, both of these players will likely be fringe All-Stars over the life of their contract. The risk with Cespedes, is that teams may be forced to overpay for his two-month hot streak with the New York Mets. Upton could get overpaid like his brother and turn into a bust. It seems like Upton should be a 40-homer hitter, but he’s never quite put it all together. A five-year deal for Upton will be slightly safer than one for Cespedes.

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