Three trade targets in the Rockies outfield

The 26-year-old Dickerson is the youngest, least proven of the group. In his three years of big-league service, he’s flashed significant power from the left side, and that alone is bound to tempt an offense-starved club.

Unfortunately, his splits are on the extreme end of extreme, and so a club will have to wade through this information with great caution. Complicating the picture with this player is that he’s still young and he has the fewest plate appearances of the group by far. Are some of his numbers down because he’s still learning the craft? Are they down because he’s just not that good and he’s getting a huge boost in Denver? How much is sample size itself skewing things?

It’s complicated, but here are some three-year averages to consider:

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And, going back to my own matrix:

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The story is clear: he has utterly raked at home, and been mediocre or simply bad outside of Denver’s confines. His total strikeout rate has ticked upward each year, reaching a new high of about 23% in 2015. His walk rate remains below league average. Nearly half as many of his fly balls become home runs when he’s away; his BABIPs skew down and his isolated power numbers do, too, by an average of almost 170 points over the three-year span. These are frightening trends.

Separate out his individual seasons, though, and reason for guarded optimism returns.

In 2014, Dickerson posted an “away” slash line of .252/.305/.431. In 2015, Dickerson posted .252/.272/.453. The on-base numbers are ugly, but the overall line can work. Mark Trumbo – another all-power, meager on-base slugger – is a reasonable comp in this case. Trumbo has slashed .250/.300/.458 for his career, with a similar strikeout figure (24.9%) and low-ish walk rates (6.5% for Trumbo’s career, 6.8% for Dickerson’s career.)

As a defender, Dickeron has played all three outfield positions, none of them particularly well. In 1,700 composite outfield innings, he’s compiled a UZR/150 of -5.9. That’s not good, but it could be worse, and he’s clearly getting paid to hit.

The total picture shows a relatively young lefty with obvious raw power and a highly team-friendly contract. These things make him desirable by default, and a decent option for teams needing an offensive shot in the arm.

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