Taking a Look at the San Diego Padres 2016 ZiPS Projections

Source: Denis Poroy/Getty Images North America

Source: Denis Poroy/Getty Images North America

Starting Rotation – Total WAR = 8

Tyson Ross = 3.3 zWAR

James Shields =  2.6 zWAR

Andrew Cashner = 1.5 zWAR

Brandon Morrow = 0.7 zWAR

Robbie Erlin = -0.8 zWAR

Colin Rea = 0.4 zWAR

Despite some questions at the back-end of the Padres rotation, the top still looks relatively good. Tyson Ross still projects as a solid to great regular player, while Shields looks to be due for at least some bounce back in 2016. Cashner looks to be projected for a similar season to the one he had in 2015, but he could surprise. Finally, some combination of Brandon Morrow, Robbie Erlin and Colin Rea is projected to provide minimal value from the four and five spots in the rotation.

May 9th, 2014 Photo By: Andy Hayt

Photo By: Andy Hayt

Bullpen: WAR = 3.0

Brandon Maurer = 0.3 zWAR

Kevin Quackenbush = 0.6 zWAR

Nick Vincent = 0.6 zWAR

Drew Pomeranz = 1.3 zWAR

Buddy Baumann = 0.5 zWAR

Leonel Campos = 0.5 zWAR

Finally the bullpen, which has perhaps the most shocking numbers of all. Despite having a successful 2015 season, expected closer Brandon Maurer is projected for only 0.3 zWAR. Both Kevin Quackenbush and Nick Vincent, who struggled last year, are projected for better seasons than Maurer according to zWAR. Even new addition Buddy Baumann, and perhaps minor leaguer Leonel Campos are projected better. Drew Pomeranz looks to get work in both the bullpen and starting rotation, giving him the best projected zWAR value of any Padre reliever.

Finally, new reliever Carlos Villanueva was also added to the team, although his ZiPS projections have not been completed. He probably projects somewhere in the neighborhood of the guys mentioned above and provides the team with yet another solid arm out of the bullpen for next season.

So in summation, the Padres don’t look too good for next year. While the team looks to be above average at catcher, second base, and at the top of the rotation, every other position falls as below league average. Obviously the biggest concern of all is shortstop and left field, but center field and right field both fall at or below league average as well. The Padres bullpen will come with a lot of question marks in 2016, but it appears they will get enough to make the unit at least league average. While you can’t simply add these zWAR values to get a team’s projected record, as currently constituted, this Padres team looks no better than the one that won only 74 games in 2015. It’s looking like another down year in Petco Park.


This article first appeared on EastVillageTimes.com on January 11th prior to the signings of Alexei Ramirez and Carlos Villanueva. The article has been updated to reflect those changes.

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