Will the young starting rotation improve from a poor 2015?
As noted previously, the Brewers starters were a mess in 2015, allowing the third-highest ERA among all starting rotations in baseball. They also ranked 26th among innings pitched, 29th in walks, 28th in WHIP, and 28th in opponent OPS. Unfortunately, their most reliable pitcher, Mike Fiers, was dealt to the Astros along with Carlos Gomez in July, and the rotation was actually worse in the second half than it was in the first (4.94 ERA vs. 4.69). Additionally, Matt Garza remains a member of the Brewers organization in 2016, against the wishes of seemingly everyone in Milwaukee, including Garza himself (it was well-publicized that Garza and management were at odds in 2015 after Garza was asked to move to the bullpen after posting a 5.63 ERA in 25 starts). However, there are a few positives for Brewers fans to hope for in 2016. After Garza, who will be in his age-32 season, the Brewers projected starters (according to our friends at RosterResource.com) average age is less than 26, meaning that there’s likely lots of room for improvement over last year. This young group includes Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta, Taylor Jungmann, and Zach Davies, all of whom had some experience starting for Milwaukee in 2015, but not all of whom had success. Nelson racked up the most innings with 177.1, but posted a mediocre 4.11 ERA. Nelson did allow less than nine hits and one home run per nine innings, but was hurt by a high walk rate. If he can improve his control while still avoiding lots of good contact, he could be poised for a breakout season. Jungmann was the best of the group in terms of ERA, posting a 3.77 mark in 119.1 innings, but he also struggled with control problems. Peralta was decidedly poor in 2015, allowing 10.8 hits per nine backed up by a lousy 1.62 K:BB rate, culminating in a miserable 4.72 ERA. Davies is the wild card of the group – after coming to Milwaukee in return for Gerardo Parra at the trade deadline, he compiled a solid 3.71 ERA in 34.0 innings across six starts for the Brewers. Davies had good upside, but his lack of MLB experience make him hard to project in 2016. Overall, the group needs to improve in order to make the Brewers more competitive in 2016, and most of that legwork will have to come from the young core.
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