Making Sense of the 2016 Projections

Toronto Blue Jays v Tampa Bay Rays

Credit: Brian Blanco / Getty Images North America

In terms of baseball, this is the most boring and yet most exciting time of the whole year. Most of the big offseason lifting is already complete, making for a boring time in terms of action. However, spring training is just around the corner, making this a time filled with anticipation. As is a yearly tradition, February marks the beginning of the baseball season. With those beginnings comes everyone’s favorite thing: projections.

Each year various computer systems, and baseball writers and bloggers, predict/project states and win/loss records for every team around the league. While several projections have already been released, including Fangraphs projection system, the PECOTA projections were released on Tuesday morning.

Obviously everyone has a different reaction to projections. Some love looking at projections, and some think it is a fruitless endeavor wrought with uncertainty and even, to an extent, misguided notions. Regardless of how one feels personally about projections systems, they are still a baseball topic worthy of some discussion. The PECOTA projections are no different in that regard.

With that introduction out of the way, a few teams deserve to be highlighted a little more in depth given their projections. Some of these projections will seem too high, while some will seem too low. For that reason, and for the purposes of easier discussion, the teams will be split between those who seem to be exceeding other projections based on PECOTA, and those who seem to be underperforming those projections. I will also be highlighting some other teams that have projections that look just right, for better or for worse. For the sake of brevity, there will be five to six teams highlighted per section.

For a point of comparison, I will be comparing the PECOTA projections to the Fangraphs projections.

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