BBE Fantasy Episode 2: Buying and Selling Preseason Hype

Zack Greinke

Greinke’s mysterious move to the Arizona Diamondbacks this offseason caused major hot stove drama. Leaving the pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium and shunning the opportunity to go up north to the sprawling AT&T Park left many questioning why, but in the end money talks. Greinke will carry the burden of leading the upstart Dbacks as they attempt to finally reach the postseason with their core of talented hitters. While Greinke was sensational last season, don’t buy so high on his 2015 numbers this draft season. He was helped out significantly by multiple factors. He held batters to an absurd .229 batting average on balls in play. This falls almost 70 points lower than his career average of .298, so expect some regression there. This is coupled with the fact Greinke was saved time and time again by stranding runners at an 86.5% clip, which was over 12% higher than his career average. And not to mention the change in venues. Chase Field is an undisputed hitters park, with power alleys and short foul poles that allow for easy extra base hits. This will hurt Greinke, and combined with the difficulty to reproduce his 2015 peripherals will be too much to work through, lowering his stock despite a stellar 2015.

Verdict: Sell.  Last season Greinke experienced the highest of highs, expect an increased BABIP as well as FIP as he adjusts to life in Chase Field.

Leave a Reply