Prior to the 2016 season, I created a formula that I use to attempt to project the performance of players using weighted averages, and normalized bottom line statistics. It has proven to be very useful, and at times, exceptionally accurate, going as far as projecting Eric Thames‘ 2017 OPS to the third decimal.
Earlier this week, the Detroit Tigers released right-handed pitcher Mark Montgomery, who has long been a favorite of mine, and I decided to break out the projection system to see how my formula would view a major league opportunity for Montgomery.
I went through his career minor league numbers, discarded statistics from weaker competition or over an inconsequential sample size, and weighed and normalized the remaining numbers according to league, health situation, sample size, age etc. I got his actual statistics from Fangraphs.
Here is the information copied from the spreadsheet.
| Year | Weight | Team | G | GS | IP | HR/9 | BB/9 | K/9 | GB% | FB% | LOB% | BABIP | ERA | FIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 5.00% | Yankees (AA) | 15 | 0 | 24 | 0.38 | 2.25 | 14.25 | 34 | 51.1 | 78.3 | .239 | 1.88 | 1.33 |
| 2013 | 7.50% | Yankees (AAA) | 25 | 0 | 40 | 0.9 | 5.63 | 11.03 | 27.4 | 54.7 | 79.8 | .333 | 3.38 | 4.00 |
| 2014 | 5.00% | Yankees (AA) | 17 | 0 | 21.2 | 0.42 | 3.32 | 7.06 | 38.2 | 49.1 | 82.5 | .218 | 0.83 | 3.63 |
| 2014 | 7.50% | Yankees (AAA) | 22 | 0 | 29.2 | 0.61 | 5.46 | 10.31 | 45.2 | 43.8 | 75.9 | .264 | 3.03 | 3.96 |
| 2015 | 7.50% | Yankees (AA) | 39 | 0 | 43 | 0.42 | 3.35 | 9.42 | 42.5 | 36.3 | 74.7 | .259 | 2.93 | 2.90 |
| 2016 | 5.00% | Yankees (AAA) | 7 | 0 | 7.2 | 0 | 1.17 | 9.39 | 46.7 | 33.3 | 66.7 | .118 | 1.17 | 1.46 |
| 2016 | 7.50% | Yankees (AA) | 15 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 4.71 | 13.29 | 34.9 | 46.5 | 80.8 | .306 | 2.14 | 1.98 |
| 2016 | 15.00% | Yankees (AAA) | 18 | 0 | 24.2 | 0.73 | 4.01 | 11.68 | 37 | 40.7 | 79.4 | .250 | 2.92 | 3.09 |
| 2017 | 35.00% | Cardinals (AAA) | 46 | 0 | 66.2 | 0.54 | 2.03 | 9.86 | 36.7 | 48.8 | 78.5 | .255 | 2.43 | 3.30 |
| 2018 | 15.00% | Tigers (AAA) | 12 | 0 | 13.2 | 0 | 5.27 | 11.2 | 46.2 | 28.2 | 76.0 | .415 | 1.98 | 2.58 |
| Proj. | 35 | 0 | 49.34 | 0.56 | 3.39 | 11.52 | 41.1 | 50.78 | 86.0 | .281 | 2.95 |
As you can see, my projection is rather favorable for the recently released righty, as he is predicted to post a 2.95 ERA with strong peripherals including an 11.52 K/9, a 3.39 BB/9 and a 0.56 HR/9. What makes it even more interesting is that his projection is weighed at 110%, seeing as how he has never pitched in the major leagues before, and his highest weighted performance was 66.1 innings in the hitter friendly Pacific Coast League.
The bottom line is, there is no reason that Mark Montgomery is without an MLB team, let alone organization, and he should be signed and given a legitimate major league opportunity in the near future.
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